Okay, yes, I am joking. But it is a good movie. I just never figured out whether Stallone meant for it to be so ridiculously over-the-top, or whether he actually wanted people to take it as serious political commentary. Either way, I love the movie (and, in all seriousness, I have a ton of respect for Stallone, too).

At any rate, this week reminded me of the pivotal scene in Rocky IV. Just to review, the bad guy/antagonist is Ivan Drago, a Russian boxer. Drago is not only undeafeted, he has the nasty habit of beating his opponents to death in the ring—including Rocky’s best friend (and one-time rival) Apollo Creed. Rocky travels to Cold War Moscow to fight Ivan in front of an angry Communist crowd that includes most of the Soviet Army, all of the Politburo, and even a Gorbachev look-alike!

Just prior to the fight, Rocky trains in the montage to end all montages. Instead of scaling the steps of the Art Museum in Philadelphia, he fights a bitter Siberian winter to summit some Russian mountain while, simultaneously, Drago trains with all of the high-tech gadgets the Commies can afford—including steroid injections! Surely, the viewer thinks, Rocky’s American grit will defeat the Red Menace’s wit.

But the first round goes badly. Drago wails on Rocky as badly as he did on Apollo. One of the announcers intones that “they’re gonna have to stop this fight before someone gets killed.” We all know who the “someone” is.

Then, suddenly, with one punch everything changes (you only need to watch the first 1:30 of this to get the point):

“He’s cut. He’s cut.” Rocky gets in his first volley of meaningful punches, the music kicks in, and Round 1 ends with Rocky and Drago wrestling on the ground in “a gutter war—no holds barred in Moscow.” In the corner, Rocky’s trainer advises: “He’s worried. You cut him. You hurt him. You see, he’s not a machine. He’s a man.”

The fight’s not over at that point. In fact it’s just beginning. But Rocky slugs it out, round by round, until he wins over the Russian audience, knocks out Drago, and gives a speech that inspires a standing ovation from Gorbachev, who, as a direct and proximate result, decides to end the Cold War. (I’m not exaggerating.)

So, why do I think Barack Obama is Ivan Drago?

Well, firstly, they’re both communists. But more importantly, until this week I thought Barack Obama was invincible and his agenda was inevitable. It wasn’t just one punch, but this week all signs started to point to the fact that Obama is not a machine, but a man who “bleeds” just like any other politician. What signs am I talking about?

• His approval numbers are, in the words of Doug Schoen and Scott Rasmussen, “falling back to earth,” and the underlying data seems to show that the American people like Obama personally more than his agenda.
• His administration is demonstrating profound incompetence, whether it be in its inability to staff key positions at the Treasury Department, or its repeated slights of close allies.
• His Treasury Secretary, the Wizard of Smart who was “uniquely qualified” to save us from economic Armageddon, can’t come up with a bank stabilization plan, is being lampooned on the usually-Obama-friendly SNL, and Obama is starting to think about replacing him.
• His political allies keep running into ethics problems.
• Opinion leaders who once supported Obama wholeheartedly are starting to have second thoughts.
• Democrats on the Hill are staring to worry, and may not support Obama’s budget.
• There are signs that Republicans are starting to launch credible counterattacks against the Administration.
• Most importantly, Obama himself can’t settle on a coherent economic message.
• The only thing working well for Obama is his social calendar.

I’m not saying the fight is won. Obama remains the most talented and formidable politician of my lifetime. But he’s not a machine, he’s a man. His agenda can be defeated.